The Debt

A Warning About the Next Economic Crisis from Leaders Who Battled the Last One

By Yuval Rosenberg

Three top officials who helped steer the U.S. through the financial crisis a decade ago warned Tuesday that, while the banking system has clearly been strengthened, policymakers might find it harder...
Is Corporate Debt Pointing to a Recession?

By Michael Rainey

A measure of corporate debt levels is reaching worrisome levels, says Joseph Lavorgna, chief economist at the investment bank Natixis. In a note to clients Tuesday, Lavorgna said that the ratio of...
Democrats and the Deficit: The Intraparty Fight Ahead

By Yuval Rosenberg

Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, the 28-year-old Democratic Socialist who stunned the political world and roiled the Democratic Party this month by defeating Rep. Joe Crowley (D-NY) in a primary, believes in...
Worrying About the Next Recession

By Yuval Rosenberg

When will the next recession hit? It’s been more than nine years since the Great Recession officially ended , and the U.S. economy is about a year away from passing the 1990s expansion to become the...
Another Problem with Larry Kudlow's Deficit Whopper

By Yuval Rosenberg

Larry Kudlow, director of President Trump’s National Economic Council, set off a wave of incredulous head-scratching on Friday by claiming in an interview with Fox Business Network that the federal...

Larry Kudlow, Trump’s Top Economic Adviser, Says the Deficit Is Falling. It Is Not.

By Yuval Rosenberg

Larry Kudlow, President Trump’s top economic adviser, said on the Fox Business Network Friday morning that the federal budget deficit is falling “rapidly.” In response to a Maria Bartiromo question...
US Interest Costs Will Match Social Security Spending by 2048, CBO Says

By Yuval Rosenberg

The Congressional Budget Office on Tuesday confirmed what we already knew: The U.S. faces a rising tide of red ink, with the national debt as a share of the economy projected to nearly double over...
Bill Clinton’s Surplus Miracle, 20 Years Later

By Sheila Weinberg

Standing behind a podium in the Rose Garden, President Bill Clinton delivered a bold prediction 20 years ago. “Well ahead of the most ambitious schedule, America has balanced the budget,” he declared...
Forget Tax Cuts: Trump’s Immigration Policy Is Drowning Out GOP Issues

By Yuval Rosenberg and Michael Rainey

Republicans had planned to focus on the tax cuts this week as we approach the six-month anniversary of the Trump administration's major legislative achievement, the passage of the tax bill in...
The Politics Behind Permanent Trillion-Dollar Deficits

By Yuval Rosenberg

Budget Guy Stan Collender writes that budget deficits under the Trump administration are projected to hit $1 trillion in 2020 — and keep rising to $1.5 trillion in fiscal 2028. “But what’s most...

The Return of the Bond Vigilante Argument

By Michael Rainey

As the fear of inflation rattles Wall Street, Politico asks if we’re seeing the return of the “bond vigilantes” — investors who drive up interest rates by selling bonds when they think inflation is...
Numbers of the Day: 665.75 and 2.852

By Yuval Rosenberg

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell almost 666 points, or about 2.5 percent, on Friday after the monthly payrolls reports showed employers added 200,000 jobs in January — and annual wage growth was...
New US Debt Could Push Interest Rates Higher

By Yuval Rosenberg

As budget deficits rise this year and for the next several years thanks in part to the recently passed GOP tax cuts, the U.S. Treasury will have to ramp up its borrowing. A group of private banks...
Treasury Will Hit Debt Ceiling Sooner Than Expected

By Michael Rainey

Government funding isn’t the only important deadline that’s approaching rapidly. According to a report released by the Congressional Budget Office on Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury could run out of...
Why This Is a Bad Time to Turn a Blind Eye to the Deficit

By Yuval Rosenberg

In a Wall Street Journal column , Princeton economist and former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alan Blinder explains why Washington’s race to increase deficits through a combination of tax cuts and...